Based on our expectation that GDP will grow 2½-3% y/y, we expect it will be difficult to sustain inflation near 2% y/y over the medium term.
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Closed borders mean a smaller economy, and recessionary impacts of this are unavoidable. The economic slump underway is truly enormous.
0000090068 00000 n 0000045816 00000 n Please consider its appropriateness to you before making any investment decisions. In our view, the economy will struggle to grow above trend and acceleration in GDP growth from here seems unlikely.
In the same vein, economists have learned two important lessons.
0000003638 00000 n View forecasts for the macro-economy and trends in New Zealand’s financial markets.
And with the RBNZ expected to use up all of its conventional fuel just keeping the ship on course, weâre only one storm away from being blown into the uncharted territory of unconventional monetary policy. It is hardly a negative story. Richard Yetsenga
With the improved inflation outlook, ANZ Research expects the jobless rate to fall back to below 5.0 per cent in 2020. All financials are on a Cash Profit Continuing Basis …
2020 Data Timetable (PDF 141kB) Economic tailwinds are blowing a little more softly than they once were, and thatâs being reflected in waning capacity pressures.
0000001951 00000 n The economy is going through a softer patch and we expect it will struggle to grow above trend from here. Learn about managing your money online, in branch and by phone xref 0000091049 00000 n Weâll only see how those two factors hold up as 2020 progresses.As we head into a new decade, the number one concern for economists and investors remains unresolved trade hostility between the worldâs two-largest economies: the US and China. Paul Richards Expect a year of growth and consolidation in 2020 around bank-led trade platforms and private-public partnerships. Having shown some good promise in early July, the ANZ business survey disappointing in its full and final read for the month.
But we believe the economic landscape may be shifting.
After a tough 2019, the outlook for Asian exports in 2020 is much brighter.
Whilst care has been taken in preparing this document, ANZ and its related entities do not warrant or represent that the document is accurate or complete.
Both parties appear ready to act if necessary.The main reason Australians are not spending is that wages and salaries are growing so slowly, meaning households struggle to find extra cash. Outlook 2020. Australian shares are close to the top of our fair-value range.Bond yields are likely to remain low for an extended period, and as such we keep Australian and international bonds at âbenchmarkâ.If the recovery strengthens as 2020 progresses then riskier assets (the Australian dollar, emerging market and value equities) would gain traction, while defensive assets such as real assets could come under downward pressure.We think the Australian dollar will likely remain under downward pressure as the RBA continues to cut the cash rate so we have an âunderweightâ on the Aussie.Mark brought over 30 years of investment market experience to ANZ, having previously worked at UBS and the Reserve Bank of Australia.
The common thread is that risks are skewed to the downside. importantly recession seems unlikely. Our subject-matter experts have the insight to offer market-leading thought leadership in a range of complex areas from across more than 30 global markets.We asked our experts about the key factors they see shaping markets and industry in 2020 – and the opportunities and challenges within.© Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ) 2016 ABN 11 005 357 522. 0000065215 00000 n 0000064934 00000 n 0000064687 00000 n Risks still remain around trade tensions and the pace and duration of a re-acceleration in global growth.Globally, shares are fairly valued, with Europe and Japan relatively attractive versus the US market.
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