If I had not known that the eye of Hurricane Gonzalo was going to approach us, I could have assumed that the storm had passed. This visible image from NOAA's GOES-East satellite on Oct. 13 at 1145 UTC (7:45 a.m. EDT) shows Tropical Storm Fay northeast of Bermuda and Tropical Storm Gonzalo over the Lesser Antilles. On Oct. 15 at 15:15 UTC (11:15 a.m. EDT) GOES saw Gonzalo had tightly wrapped bands of thunderstorms spiraling into the center of its circulation. There is considerable uncertainty in the intensity forecast, but some strengthening is possible during the next day or so before Gonzalo reaches the southern Windward Islands.Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves into the Caribbean Sea, and the cyclone is expected to dissipate by the middle of next week. Thankfully during this time, we were able to get a phone call through to my Aunt who lives in Boston.
Gonzalo and Hanna showed why hurricane intensity forecasts are so challenging. Acquired September 5, 2012, this natural-color image shows Hurricane Leslie approaching Bermuda. By Oct. 20, post-tropical storm Gonzalo was approaching the United Kindgom, sparking severe weather warnings.By Sunday, Oct. 19 Gonzalo was affecting eastern Canada. The National Hurricane Center noted that "Gonzalo is expected to be a dangerous Category 3 hurricane as it moves near or over Bermuda. The last major hurricane to strike Bermuda was Fabian in September 2003. This animation of visible and infrared images from NOAA's GOES-East satellite shows the movement and strengthening of Gonzalo from a tropical storm on Oct. 13 to a hurricane on Oct. 15 north of Puerto Rico. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft has not yet completed its survey of Gonzalo, but preliminary data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Please see our Tropical Storm Gonzalo is on course to become the first CNN meteorologist Taylor Ward said: ""Given the increased organization of the system and its small size, Gonzalo's likelihood of becoming a hurricane is rising. We were surrounded in darkness as the electricity in the area had gone out. There are coral reefs and banks that can be seen under the surface when waters are clear. The minimum central pressure recently reported by an air force reconnaissance aircraft was 949 millibars.Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bermuda by late Thursday night, Oct. 16, and hurricane conditions are possible over Bermuda on Friday Oct. 16.Ocean swells however, will be felt over a much larger area, reached the U.S. east coast on Oct. 16. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center.The government of Barbados has canceled the hurricane watch for Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 to 36 hours. 2020 has yet to have a named storm reach hurricane strength." Those dangerous conditions are expected along the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda later today, Oct. 16.The NHC forecast calls for Gonzalo to remain a major hurricane on its approach to landfall in Bermuda. The images revealed how Gonzalo stirred up the sediment from the ocean bottom.The MODIS instrument or Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer that flies aboard NASA's Aqua and Terra satellites provided imagery of Bermuda and the stirred sediment. This is comparison of NASA satellite imagery before (Oct. 4) and after (Oct. 19) Hurricane Gonzalo passed shows the sediment stirred up (green, blue). NOAA's GOES-East satellite saw a more ragged eye on the approach. The NASA/NOAA GOES Project creates images and animations from GOES data.At 11 a.m. EDT on Oct. 15, Gonzalo's maximum sustained winds increased to near 130 mph (215 kph) and the National Hurricane Center (NHC)Â noted that fluctuations in intensity are expected over the next couple of days. The 58 second video showed the progression of Gonzalo as it moved past Puerto Rico and strengthened into a Major hurricane.At 2 p.m. EDT on Oct. 17 Gonzalo's maximum sustained winds were near 120 mph (205 kph), making it a Category Three Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.
The Bermuda Weather Service expected hurricane force winds to arrive in the afternoon, with the most destructive winds battering the island through the evening. Fay's maximum rainfall appeared between 4 and 8 inches (green).
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