M 7.1 - 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence Stewart, J.P. They found that ruptures of a few larger, but many smaller, faults occurred during both earthquakes. Photo credit: Chris DuRoss, USGSUSGS Geophysicists Elizabeth Cochran and Nick VanDerElst install a seismometer on the base Photo credit: Ben Brooks, USGSUSGS scientist Jessie Thompson Jobe collects and records information on earthquake surface ruptures observed along a roadway following the Ridgecrest earthquake sequence.
Using 13,525 routinely cataloged events as waveform templates, I detect and preciseOperational earthquake forecasting protocols commonly use statistical models for their recognized ease of implementation and robustness in describing the short-term spatiotemporal patterns of triggered seismicity. However, recent advances on physics-based aftershock forecasting reveal comparable performance to the standard statistical counterparts...Surface rupture from the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence, initially associated with the M 6.4 foreshock, occurred on July 4 on a ~17 km long, northeast-southwest oriented, left-lateral zone of faulting.
This new model, known as an epidemic type aftershock sequence, is borrowed from the epidemiology literature. This video is only a small snapshot of the many USGS employees who responded, and only begins to allude to the myriad of partner agencies and institutions who were involved. The animation begins in a map view and then transitions into a rotating vertical slice. Most Southern Californians are aware of the seismic risk posed by the San Andreas Fault. Effects from the two earthquakes were observed in several USGS continuous groundwater-level monitoring sites in California, Nevada, and Arizona.Surface rupture associated with the 2019 Ridgecrest, California earthquake sequence includes the dominantly left-lateral and northeast-striking M6.4 rupture and dominantly right-lateral and northwest-striking M7.1 rupture. Photo credit: Ryan Gold (USGS)USGS scientist Kate Scharer provides Commanding Officer CAPT Paul Dale (Navy) with the field team’s initial mapping product, showing the surface fault rupture at Naval Air Weapons Station China Lake (NAWSCL) as well as the temporarily deployed seismic and GPS sensors that were rapidly deployed. In other words, a large quake became roughly 1000 times more likely along the Garlock and 10 times on the San Andreas Fault. These representations are based on relocated hypocenter catal Ridgecrest has had: (M1.5 or greater) 1 earthquake in the past 24 hours 25 earthquakes in the past 7 days; 106 earthquakes in the past 30 days; 3,547 earthquakes in the past 365 days “Concurrent with all of the work to operationalize this forecast, we would also have to really think about the best ways to present the information in a useful way that encourages appropriate responses from the public,” said Milner. But getting here requires not only an allocation of resources; it also demands a change in the overall way seismic risk is communicated to the public. Thirty-four hours later, a stronger magnitude-7.1 shock occurred. zone (ECSZ). This data release includes surface-displacement observations of these ruptures made by teams of federal, state, academic, and private sector geologists between July andThis dataset is composed of linear active tectonic and other relevant features (scarps, deflected drainages, and lineaments and contrasts in topography, vegetation, and ground color) mapped based on high-resolution topography, aerial/satellite imagery, and field observations.
One newly developed aftershock forecast model takes into account the concept that faults are more likely to rupture in response to nearby seismic activity, thus providing a more comprehensive picture of aftershock probabilities. Seismological Research Letters 91(3), doi.org/10.1785/0220190294Ross, Z. E., Idini, B., Jia, Z., Stephenson, O. L., Zhong, M., Wang, X., Zhan, Z., Simons, M., Fielding, E. J., Yun, S., Hauksson, E., Moore, A. W., Liu, Z., & Jung. As for the San Andreas Fault to the west, probabilities of a Ridgecrest aftershock triggering a significant rupture on this fault increased immediately following the earthquake, although not much above the everyday background risk. When the quakes are put into a forecasting model, scientists can calculate the probability that a nearby fault may rupture over a given period. Scientists look at aftershocks to learn about seismicity in a region in real time. “There’s definitely still a chance of a large Garlock event according to the model,” notes Milner. As stress — built up along a fault surface — is released at one location during an earthquake, it is redistributed throughout the region. And with each new event comes new probabilities. The Ridgecrest earthquake in July was the strongest to strike southern California in 20 years. With aftershock forecasts, the event rate decays, but the magnitudes don’t.
Ridgecrest, California, residents inspect a recent fault rupture following two large earthquakes in the area on July 7, 2019. Photo credit: Jamie Delano, USGSUSGS scientist Jaime Delano, observes a sand blow caused by liquefaction during the M7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake. In a recent paper published in Seismological Research Letters, scientists used a newly developed model to forecast aftershocks following this event and evaluate the likelihood that these quakes could trigger even greater shaking [Milner et al., 2020].
Operational earthquake forecasting during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence with the UCERF3-ETAS model. The forecasting model initially gave 0.65% chance of a Garlock rupture greater than magnitude-7.0 in the 30 days following the mainshock, but as more aftershock events occurred and the model was updated over the next few days to better represent the rupture surfaces, probabilities jumped up to as high as 5.1%. Two of the first questions that come to mind for anyone who just felt an earthquake are, “Will there be another one?” and “Will it be larger?”.Southern California experienced two large earthquakes in July 2019.
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